US Traders Bypass Polymarket Bans to Bet $571 Million on Global Conflict

The data, compiled by on-chain research firm Allium, reveals that American participants are increasingly utilizing crypto wallets, stablecoins, and VPN-style masking tools to circumvent access protocols. While researchers caution that these figures are directional—accounting for roughly 6% of identifiable wallets—the findings underscore a significant disconnect between regulatory barriers and actual user behavior. Unlike the broader platform demographic, which prioritizes domestic election outcomes, U.S.-linked accounts focus heavily on foreign conflicts and diplomatic volatility. Geopolitical events accounted for 46% of American trading volume, with contracts regarding the war in Iran and the appearance of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy drawing more capital than local political races.

Regulatory Pressure Mounts

This trend arrives as Polymarket faces intensifying scrutiny from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), prompted by inquiries from U.S. lawmakers Adam Schiff and John Curtis. The friction extends to the state level, where authorities in Wisconsin have challenged the legality of event-based contracts, labeling them as unlicensed gambling. Furthermore, European regulators at the ESMA have signaled that certain prediction contracts may soon fall under stricter financial oversight. For now, the Allium report suggests that rather than eliminating American demand, existing bans have merely pushed activity into decentralized, harder-to-regulate channels, leaving a substantial portion of the market outside the scope of domestic consumer protections.