Markets pivot to earnings as US jobs data cools rate-hike bets

The US labor market cooled significantly in June, with nonfarm payrolls rising by just 57,000—falling well short of the 110,000 increase anticipated by analysts. When combined with downward revisions of 74,000 for April and May, the data has prompted markets to recalibrate their outlook for Federal Reserve policy, fueling a 2% climb in the MSCI world shares index last week. Investors will look for further clarity on Wednesday when the Fed releases minutes from its June meeting.

Corporate focus remains fixed on the tech sector, specifically the sustainability of the AI-fueled chip boom. Samsung Electronics faces a critical test on Tuesday, with expectations of an 18-fold profit jump tempered by concerns over high bonus payouts. Meanwhile, market participants are monitoring the debut of SK Hynix on the Nasdaq and the expansion of SpaceX into public trading. As S&P 500 companies prepare to report, analysts project an aggregate earnings growth of over 24%. Results from Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo will be scrutinized for indicators of underlying consumer health in a high-interest-rate environment.