U.S. Crude Stockpiles Projected to Drop Ahead of EIA Report

The average estimate from nine analysts and traders places commercial stockpiles at 408.7 million barrels for the week ending July 17. While eight respondents expect a decline, individual forecasts diverge significantly, ranging from a 2.3 million barrel drop to a 3.4 million barrel build. Gasoline inventories are similarly expected to contract, with a consensus forecast of a 1.1 million barrel decrease to 209.4 million barrels.

Contrasting the draw in crude and gasoline, distillate fuel stocks—which include diesel—are positioned for a marginal rise of 100,000 barrels, bringing total levels to 108.3 million barrels. Meanwhile, refinery utilization is projected to tick downward by 0.2 percentage points to 96%. These figures reflect a broader uncertainty among market observers, as individual predictions for refinery runs fluctuate between a 0.3 percentage point increase and a 0.7 percentage point decline.