Negotiations between the White House and Republican Senators Cynthia Lummis and Bernie Moreno have produced a breakthrough on ethics language, though the specific text remains undisclosed. The move aims to neutralize opposition from Democrats like Elizabeth Warren and Chris Murphy, who previously dismissed the bill as ineffective unless it directly addressed the president’s ties to the industry, including his family’s involvement with World Liberty Financial.
While this compromise removes a significant hurdle, the path to enactment remains narrow. Lawmakers have yet to publish final legislative text or schedule a floor vote, leaving little time before the chamber pivots to its August state work period. Concerns persist regarding enforcement mechanisms, specifically whether the Trump-controlled Department of Justice would hold exclusive oversight or if state attorneys general would retain authority to act.
Market reaction has been swift, with Bitcoin climbing above $66,000 and shares in Coinbase and Circle seeing significant gains. Despite the optimism on trading floors, prediction markets remain skeptical, with Polymarket assigning a 48% probability to the bill becoming law in 2026. The legislation, which passed the House in July 2025, seeks to create a federal framework for digital assets by defining when tokens fall under securities or commodities regulation.

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