Prediction Markets Hit Record $50.6 Billion Volume in July

Kalshi maintained its dominance, accounting for $37.7 billion of the total, while the combined volume across Polymarket’s international and U.S. platforms reached $12.9 billion. Notably, Polymarket US saw a 54% jump to $5 billion, signaling a shift in activity toward regulated domestic venues. However, this growth did not entirely offset a 26% decline in volume on Polymarket’s offshore exchange. Analysts caution that these figures represent notional volume—total contract turnover—rather than actual capital deposits or platform revenue.

Market enthusiasm cooled significantly after the conclusion of the FIFA World Cup on July 19. Open interest, which stood at roughly $2 billion earlier in the month, dropped to $1.2 billion by month-end as tournament-related positions settled. The temporary boost from sports betting leaves an open question regarding whether these platforms can sustain such high liquidity levels moving forward.

Legal pressure remains a significant variable for the sector. New York authorities recently sued Kalshi, characterizing its event contracts as illegal gambling. Conversely, a federal judge in Minnesota issued an injunction preventing the state from enforcing its own gambling laws against Kalshi and Polymarket US, citing potential federal preemption. As these cases proceed, the industry faces a critical test of whether its federally regulated status will shield it from state-level challenges or if persistent legal uncertainty will dampen future trading activity.