George Santos Banned From Trading After CFTC Market Manipulation Probe

The July 31 order requires Santos to return $17,569.98 in trading gains and pay an additional $17,500 civil penalty. While the former congressman settled the matter, he neither admitted nor denied the agency's findings that he misled the public to profit from event contracts. The investigation centered on trades Santos placed in February, when he bet on whether he would attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech. Records show he profited from “Yes” contracts by posting about his travel plans, then reversed his position to “No” contracts after his flight and train were canceled—all while publicly claiming he still intended to attend.

Kalshi’s surveillance systems flagged the suspicious activity, leading the platform to freeze his account and refer the case to federal regulators. According to CFTC findings, Santos’ public statements and omissions created artificial price shifts that he exploited for financial gain. His attorney, Joseph W. Murray, stated that the travel disruptions were caused by severe weather and denied any intent to manipulate the market, noting that Santos settled simply to avoid the costs of protracted litigation. This enforcement action highlights the growing regulatory scrutiny facing prediction markets, as exchanges scramble to implement stricter oversight to prevent candidates and insiders from betting on their own actions.