SpaceX Earnings Test Investor Patience Amid AI Pivot

Analysts anticipate revenue reaching $6.8 billion, yet the primary focus remains on management’s roadmap for space-based data centers. The strategy relies on using satellite networks to provide global computing capacity, a vision bolstered by a significant $1.25 billion monthly agreement with Anthropic. Investors are seeking clarity on when these compute-heavy contracts will transition from capital-intensive development to material revenue contributors.

Bernstein SocGen Group remains optimistic, maintaining an Outperform rating and a $239 price target. The firm points to rapid Starship reuse as the linchpin for valuation, arguing that lower launch costs are essential for deploying the orbital infrastructure required for AI operations. Despite this, the stock continues to struggle, trading near $119.71—well below its $225.64 high and the $135 IPO price.

Ultimately, the earnings call will serve as a referendum on SpaceX’s capital allocation. While Starlink provides the only consistent profit stream, the company must balance this growth against the massive spending required for satellite manufacturing and AI expansion. Any delays in Starship development or signs of escalating operational costs could trigger further volatility, testing the floor established at the $105 level.