Crypto funds urged to drop Fed forecasting for systematic strategies

With Bitcoin climbing 22.1% in a single week—its strongest performance since March 2024—the volatility has sparked debate over the role of monetary policy. While upcoming remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium are drawing significant attention, Moon Pursuit Capital Principal Courtney Olujobi believes the focus on specific policy outcomes is misplaced. According to Olujobi, digital assets are less sensitive to the size of a rate adjustment than to the available liquidity standing in the way of capital flows.

Market structure currently plays an outsized role in price action. Estimates suggest only 13% of circulating Bitcoin is actively available for trading, a scarcity that allows even modest capital shifts to trigger rapid movements. This sensitivity was on display following a U.S. Treasury announcement regarding liquidity-support buybacks, which saw Bitcoin jump from $64,100 to $69,500 in less than 12 hours, liquidating over $1 billion in bearish positions.

To navigate this, institutional players are increasingly looking toward systematic, market-neutral strategies. These approaches utilize predefined rules to manage risk and exploit pricing differences between spot and futures markets, rather than relying on directional bets. While such strategies may sacrifice the explosive upside seen during recent rallies, they offer a buffer against the inherent instability of a market where capital flows transmit into price volatility with punishing speed.