Sberbank Forecasts Record Profits Amid Cooling Consumer Demand

The country's largest lender anticipates its net profit will exceed 2025 levels, setting the stage for a fiscal peak in three years. However, Gref identified a cooling in consumption as a primary concern for the bank's long-term strategy. This shift in consumer behavior coincides with a sharp rise in inflation, which the CEO attributes largely to the degradation of domestic oil refining capacity following recent strikes.

While the bank maintains a bullish outlook on its own earnings, the reliance on industrial output remains a critical variable. The loss of refining infrastructure has disrupted domestic supply chains, fueling price increases that are beginning to weigh on household budgets. For Sberbank, these macroeconomic headwinds complicate the path to its 2027 targets, forcing the institution to balance aggressive growth projections against a tightening economic reality.