Kaspa prediction market targets year-end 2026 launch

Helfer said in a Nov. 11 post on X that he had spent several months working with Bit Cat, identified as @maxibitcat, to turn the proposal into an Argent application. Under the design, only Kaspa miners would benefit from the market’s operation. The target date is a development plan, not a confirmed launch.

Each prediction would use a tradable, fungible KCC20 token with added voting logic. Helfer said Argent made it easier to build the covenant system as a sequence of states within Kaspa’s UTXO transaction model. While a similar idea could be implemented as one Ethereum Virtual Machine program, he said the state-based approach suited UTXO covenants.

Bit Cat’s July 10 forum proposal describes users posting a question and expiry date. Market creation would mint equal amounts of YES and NO tokens, backed by committed funds, with trading through compatible decentralized exchanges. After expiry, holders would vote during a set period; holders of the winning side could then claim payouts.

The proposed lottery is meant to encourage honest settlement. Losing-token holders who vote with the majority could enter a lottery, while voting would be required to receive any payout. Bit Cat acknowledged that the mechanism could be manipulated and said it would be better suited to liquid markets with uncontroversial questions. An Aug. 27 revision proposed burning unclaimed winning rewards rather than redistributing them. The proposal also assumes that participation is not too concentrated and that participants share a belief that the true outcome is slightly more likely to prevail.

Bit Cat has argued that event contracts can help manage risks, citing a bar owner seeking protection against a lockdown and a winemaker concerned about an unusually hot summer. He has also emphasized that settlement questions should leave little room for ambiguity. Helfer warned that smaller markets could be easier to manipulate under the current design, adding: “Inevitably, people would lose money in this social experiment.”