Bitcoin’s Nov. 22 test follows $2.22 billion ETF outflows

In its Nov. 11 midweek update, Bitfinex Alpha identified $75,717 as the average purchase price for coins held for fewer than 155 days. Bitcoin had spent four days below that threshold after dropping to $72,706 following the US inflation report. The analysts estimate that 1.6 million BTC bought between $75,000 and $80,000 is now underwater, leaving holders with an incentive to sell as prices approach breakeven.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net withdrawals of $2.22 billion across eight sessions beginning Oct. 30, the largest such outflow since July 2, according to Bitfinex. Farside Investors reported withdrawals of $201 million on Nov. 9 and $95 million on Nov. 10. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for roughly $1.73 billion, or 77.9%, of the eight-session total. Earlier outflow runs this year were followed by a median 6.4% gain over 10 sessions only when they ended with at least three consecutive days of inflows, the report said.

Corporate buying has not offset the ETF sales, Bitfinex said. Strategy bought 1,036 BTC between Nov. 2 and Nov. 8, but the report cited MARA’s disclosed sales and possible selling by other corporate treasury holders. Meanwhile, futures open interest rose 3.3% to 701,900 BTC from Nov. 8 to Nov. 11 as Bitcoin fell 2.6%. After the CPI release, open interest declined just 0.2% despite about $729 million in liquidations, including $581 million in long positions. Funding for perpetual futures remained near 11% annualized, indicating traders were still paying to maintain longs, according to the analysts.

Bitfinex reviewed 14 instances since 2016 when Bitcoin fell below its short-term holder cost basis after spending at least 60 days above it. The price recovered within two weeks in 11 cases; the other three took 57 to 114 days. In those episodes, the lowest price over the following 90 days was 17%–35% below the cost basis. For the current break, which began Nov. 8, the two-week checkpoint falls on Nov. 22. A move back above $75,717 alongside three consecutive ETF inflow sessions would support the firm’s correction scenario.

The report also found that selling has been less intense than in May–July: net realized losses reached about 172,700 BTC over 12 consecutive days through Nov. 10, averaging 14,400 BTC a day, compared with 45,000 BTC daily during the earlier decline. Bitfinex said Bitcoin has also captured less of the Nasdaq 100’s recent rebound than of its losses: over 25 sessions after the index’s Oct. 6 record, the cryptocurrency took 91% of the index’s losses on down days but just 58% of its gains on up days.