Jiang Zhuoer projects Bitcoin cycle bottom at $42,000 by late 2026

Jiang’s analysis focuses on the mNAV metric, which compares MicroStrategy’s stock price to the value of its underlying Bitcoin holdings. With mNAV recently dipping to 0.72, the reading mirrors conditions observed in May 2022, just months before the broader market hit its previous cycle low. By tracking the historical delay between the mNAV bottom and the actual Bitcoin price floor, Jiang identifies October 31, 2026, as a key date for a potential low near $44,016.

While the model highlights a specific timeline, Jiang acknowledges that price targets are less reliable than his timing indicators. The current market environment remains volatile, with Bitcoin struggling to maintain support levels above $60,000 amid significant liquidations. Jiang has adjusted his own portfolio to reflect this outlook, opting to sell spot holdings in favor of short positions for the near term. He intends to resume spot accumulation only as the market approaches his projected late-2026 bottom.