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Galaxy Digital trims CLARITY Act odds as Senate hurdles loom

With the U.S. Senate in recess until July 13, Galaxy Digital has recalibrated the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 50%. Despite the cooling outlook, Republican leadership continues to signal a push for a floor vote immediately upon the legislature’s return to Washington.

Galaxy Digital trims CLARITY Act odds as Senate hurdles loom

Behind closed doors, congressional staff, White House officials, and crypto industry representatives are scrambling to reconcile disparate versions of the crypto market structure bill. Negotiators must bridge significant gaps regarding ethics rules, anti-money laundering provisions, and digital asset oversight before any proposal can reach the floor. Senator Tim Scott remains a vocal proponent, recently endorsing a July timeline to secure regulatory clarity and bolster domestic innovation.

Procedural obstacles threaten to derail these ambitions. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has signaled that the National Defense Authorization Act will take precedence upon the session's resumption, likely pushing the CLARITY Act into late July or August. The window for success is narrow; observers argue that missing the August recess deadline could effectively stall the bill for the remainder of the 2026 session. Securing passage requires a 60-vote threshold, necessitating bipartisan buy-in as Republican support is not monolithic, with Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul previously signaling opposition to similar measures.

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