Australia’s 40-Year Economic Outlook Bets on AI Over Crypto

The seventh Intergenerational Report, published Sept. 21, outlines a future where Australia’s economy doubles in size, contingent on navigating population aging, geopolitical shifts, and a transition to a services-oriented model. Treasurer Jim Chalmers framed the integration of agentic AI—systems capable of autonomous action—as the most significant technological pivot since the previous 2023 report. Treasury maintains a 1.2% annual productivity growth assumption, though officials acknowledge that the deployment of AI could alter these projections in ways that remain difficult to quantify over a four-decade horizon.

Strategic Divergence on Digital Assets

Despite the omission of crypto from the primary outlook, the government maintains a parallel track for digital finance. Coinbase Australia director John O’Loghlen argued that the report overlooks the necessary infrastructure for autonomous agents, which will require programmable payment systems to function effectively. Treasury’s separate Financial Innovation Strategy, released Sept. 3, suggests a more nuanced view: it explicitly links AI agents to the future of real-time, interoperable payment rails. While the Intergenerational Report focuses on high-level economic shifts, the government has already legislated a licensing framework for digital asset platforms, set to take effect in April 2027. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia continues its own research into tokenized markets, with recent trials through Project Acacia exploring the integration of stablecoins and commercial bank tokens. Although the DFCRC estimates full digital finance adoption could yield A$24 billion in annual gains, policymakers appear to be treating tokenized infrastructure as a distinct regulatory challenge separate from the broader, AI-led economic narrative.