Weak Fundamentals Drive Bank Failures, New York Fed Finds

Researchers analyzed data using artificial intelligence to comb through millions of digitized historical newspaper pages, building what they describe as the most comprehensive database of U.S. bank runs in history. The findings suggest that while panic can strike both strong and weak institutions, poor fundamentals are the essential catalyst that transforms a run into a collapse.

This distinction challenges the notion that minor market shocks are sufficient to spark widespread banking panics. The study frames bank runs as a trigger mechanism rather than an independent cause of economic distress. Without underlying insolvency, the researchers argue, the banking system and the broader economy remain largely insulated from the devastating consequences often associated with mass deposit withdrawals.