By 11:45 a.m. ET, August NYMEX West Texas Intermediate crude surged $1.70 to reach $70.25 per barrel, while September ICE Brent climbed $1.85 to $73.85. The uptick reflects immediate market sensitivity to the security of the Strait, a critical artery for global energy transit. Despite the spike, the spread between WTI and Brent remains narrow at less than $4 per barrel, a significant tightening from the $10 gap seen in May.
While crude prices rallied, refined products faced downward pressure. August NYMEX RBOB retreated 4.25 cents to $2.961 per gallon, and August ULSD dipped 1.45 cents to $3.285. This divergence underscores the complex reality of the current energy landscape, where geopolitical fears clash with fundamental concerns over output. Analysts at Commerzbank note that production from key OPEC members—including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran—has risen sharply since mid-June, potentially offsetting supply risks. Nevertheless, the bank maintains that regional instability will likely prevent a full return to normal supply levels in the near term, keeping a floor under crude prices even as inventories grow.

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