Bitcoin Climbs Past $65K as U.S. Payrolls Signal Labor Cooling

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the third-largest monthly payroll decline since 2020, compounded by downward revisions that stripped 103,000 jobs from May and June estimates. While the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, the broader cooling of labor demand has shifted market sentiment. Polymarket odds now place the probability of a September rate hold at 66%, up significantly from the previous day’s 50%.

Despite the rally, skepticism remains among institutional observers. Iggy Ioppe, chief investment officer at Theo, noted that a single weak report may not sway the Fed while energy and shipping volatility persist. "A softer jobs number does not automatically close that gap," Ioppe said, pointing to ongoing inflationary pressures in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Similarly, Andrei Grachev of DWF Labs observed that options markets are still pricing in defensive hedges, with put premiums trading 50% above calls. Investors are now looking toward the August 12 Consumer Price Index report to determine if the cooling labor market will finally translate into a sustained decline in inflation.